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2012 Governor · NH

New England College Polling Center · fieldwork ended 2012-10-24 (13 days before the election) · 571 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 45%

even

The certified result

Democrat 54.61% · Republican 42.52%

D+12.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 45 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 54.611 − 42.518 = 12.093
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (12.093) = -12.093
  4. Absolute miss = |-12.093| = 12.093

The poll overstated the Republican by 12.1 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30335, race ID 1262 (538 database).