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2012 President · OK

SoonerPoll.com · fieldwork ended 2012-10-21 (16 days before the election) · 305 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 32.7% · Republican 58.6%

R+25.9

The certified result

Democrat 33.23% · Republican 66.77%

R+33.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 32.7 − 58.6 = -25.90
  2. Actual margin = 33.228 − 66.772 = -33.544
  3. Signed miss = -25.90 − (-33.544) = 7.645
  4. Absolute miss = |7.645| = 7.645

The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30336, race ID 689 (538 database).