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2012 President · NC

National Research · fieldwork ended 2012-10-20 (17 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 48%

R+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.35% · Republican 50.39%

R+2.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 48 = -1.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.351 − 50.393 = -2.042
  3. Signed miss = -1.00 − (-2.042) = 1.042
  4. Absolute miss = |1.042| = 1.042

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30338, race ID 680 (538 database).