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2012 President · NM

Public Policy Polling · fieldwork ended 2012-10-23 (14 days before the election) · 727 respondents · IVR · partisan sponsor (DEM)

The poll said

Democrat 53% · Republican 44%

D+9.0

The certified result

Democrat 52.99% · Republican 42.84%

D+10.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 53 − 44 = 9.00
  2. Actual margin = 52.993 − 42.843 = 10.150
  3. Signed miss = 9.00 − (10.150) = -1.149
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.149| = 1.149

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30355, race ID 685 (538 database).