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2012 Senate · MO

Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2012-10-24 (13 days before the election) · 625 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 43%

D+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 54.81% · Republican 39.11%

D+15.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 43 = 2.00
  2. Actual margin = 54.814 − 39.114 = 15.700
  3. Signed miss = 2.00 − (15.700) = -13.701
  4. Absolute miss = |-13.701| = 13.701

The poll overstated the Republican by 13.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30360, race ID 1486 (538 database).