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2012 President · NC

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2012-10-25 (12 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 52%

R+6.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.35% · Republican 50.39%

R+2.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 52 = -6.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.351 − 50.393 = -2.042
  3. Signed miss = -6.00 − (-2.042) = -3.958
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.958| = 3.958

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30362, race ID 680 (538 database).