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2012 Senate · VA

Gravis Marketing · fieldwork ended 2012-10-26 (11 days before the election) · 645 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 48%

R+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 52.87% · Republican 46.96%

D+5.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 48 = -2.00
  2. Actual margin = 52.866 − 46.961 = 5.905
  3. Signed miss = -2.00 − (5.905) = -7.905
  4. Absolute miss = |-7.905| = 7.905

The poll overstated the Republican by 7.9 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30369, race ID 1501 (538 database).