2012 President · MN
St. Cloud State University · fieldwork ended 2012-10-18 (19 days before the election) · 601 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 53% · Republican 45%
D+8.0
The certified result
Democrat 52.65% · Republican 44.96%
D+7.7
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 53 − 45 = 8.00
- Actual margin = 52.652 − 44.958 = 7.694
- Signed miss = 8.00 − (7.694) = 0.306
- Absolute miss = |0.306| = 0.306
The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.3 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30370, race ID 676 (538 database).