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2012 President · NY

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2012-10-24 (13 days before the election) · 554 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 62% · Republican 33%

D+29.0

The certified result

Democrat 60.76% · Republican 31.24%

D+29.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 62 − 33 = 29.00
  2. Actual margin = 60.761 − 31.242 = 29.519
  3. Signed miss = 29.00 − (29.519) = -0.519
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.519| = 0.519

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30372, race ID 687 (538 database).