2012 Senate · VA
ABC News/The Washington Post · fieldwork ended 2012-10-24 (13 days before the election) · 1,228 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 51% · Republican 44%
D+7.0
The certified result
Democrat 52.87% · Republican 46.96%
D+5.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 51 − 44 = 7.00
- Actual margin = 52.866 − 46.961 = 5.905
- Signed miss = 7.00 − (5.905) = 1.095
- Absolute miss = |1.095| = 1.095
The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.1 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30374, race ID 1501 (538 database).