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2012 House · NM-2

Research & Polling Inc. · fieldwork ended 2012-10-24 (13 days before the election) · 113 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 38% · Republican 56%

R+18.0

The certified result

Democrat 40.87% · Republican 59.06%

R+18.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 38 − 56 = -18.00
  2. Actual margin = 40.867 − 59.056 = -18.189
  3. Signed miss = -18.00 − (-18.189) = 0.189
  4. Absolute miss = |0.189| = 0.189

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30386, race ID 5152 (538 database).