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2012 President · national

TIPP Insights · fieldwork ended 2012-10-24 (13 days before the election) · 942 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 45.4% · Republican 44.1%

D+1.3

The certified result

Democrat 50.91% · Republican 46.97%

D+3.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45.4 − 44.1 = 1.30
  2. Actual margin = 50.909 − 46.974 = 3.935
  3. Signed miss = 1.30 − (3.935) = -2.635
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.635| = 2.635

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30392, race ID 37 (538 database).