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2012 Senate · OH

Gravis Marketing · fieldwork ended 2012-10-27 (10 days before the election) · 730 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 47%

D+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 50.70% · Republican 44.70%

D+6.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 47 = 1.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.701 − 44.700 = 6.001
  3. Signed miss = 1.00 − (6.001) = -5.001
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.001| = 5.001

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30400, race ID 1494 (538 database).