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2012 President · OH

Gravis Marketing · fieldwork ended 2012-10-27 (10 days before the election) · 730 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 50% · Republican 49%

D+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 50.67% · Republican 47.69%

D+3.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50 − 49 = 1.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.667 − 47.688 = 2.979
  3. Signed miss = 1.00 − (2.979) = -1.978
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.978| = 1.978

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30400, race ID 688 (538 database).