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2012 House · HI-2

Ward Research · fieldwork ended 2012-10-19 (18 days before the election) · 410 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 73% · Republican 8%

D+65.0

The certified result

Democrat 80.54% · Republican 19.46%

D+61.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 73 − 8 = 65.00
  2. Actual margin = 80.543 − 19.457 = 61.086
  3. Signed miss = 65.00 − (61.086) = 3.915
  4. Absolute miss = |3.915| = 3.915

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30414, race ID 5025 (538 database).