2012 President · NV
Grove Insight · fieldwork ended 2012-10-27 (10 days before the election) · 500 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (DEM)
The poll said
Democrat 49% · Republican 43%
D+6.0
The certified result
Democrat 52.36% · Republican 45.67%
D+6.7
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 49 − 43 = 6.00
- Actual margin = 52.356 − 45.675 = 6.681
- Signed miss = 6.00 − (6.681) = -0.681
- Absolute miss = |-0.681| = 0.681
The poll overstated the Republican by 0.7 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30433, race ID 686 (538 database).