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2012 Senate · MI

Glengariff Group · fieldwork ended 2012-10-28 (9 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 52.4% · Republican 37.5%

D+14.9

The certified result

Democrat 58.80% · Republican 37.98%

D+20.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 52.4 − 37.5 = 14.90
  2. Actual margin = 58.798 − 37.984 = 20.814
  3. Signed miss = 14.90 − (20.814) = -5.914
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.914| = 5.914

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30470, race ID 1483 (538 database).