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2012 President · MI

Glengariff Group · fieldwork ended 2012-10-28 (9 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 47.7% · Republican 45%

D+2.7

The certified result

Democrat 54.21% · Republican 44.71%

D+9.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47.7 − 45 = 2.70
  2. Actual margin = 54.208 − 44.711 = 9.497
  3. Signed miss = 2.70 − (9.497) = -6.797
  4. Absolute miss = |-6.797| = 6.797

The poll overstated the Republican by 6.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30470, race ID 675 (538 database).