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2012 Senate · NM

Public Opinion Strategies · fieldwork ended 2012-10-21 (16 days before the election) · 500 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 44%

R+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.01% · Republican 45.28%

D+5.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 44 = -1.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.008 − 45.278 = 5.730
  3. Signed miss = -1.00 − (5.730) = -6.731
  4. Absolute miss = |-6.731| = 6.731

The poll overstated the Republican by 6.7 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30477, race ID 1491 (538 database).