2012 House · RI-2
Fleming & Associates · fieldwork ended 2012-10-26 (11 days before the election) · 301 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 48% · Republican 31%
D+17.0
The certified result
Democrat 55.72% · Republican 35.12%
D+20.6
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 48 − 31 = 17.00
- Actual margin = 55.720 − 35.116 = 20.604
- Signed miss = 17.00 − (20.604) = -3.605
- Absolute miss = |-3.605| = 3.605
The poll overstated the Republican by 3.6 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30488, race ID 5240 (538 database).