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2012 President · WI

Public Policy Polling · fieldwork ended 2012-10-29 (8 days before the election) · 825 respondents · IVR · partisan sponsor (DEM)

The poll said

Democrat 51% · Republican 46%

D+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 52.78% · Republican 45.94%

D+6.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51 − 46 = 5.00
  2. Actual margin = 52.776 − 45.938 = 6.838
  3. Signed miss = 5.00 − (6.838) = -1.838
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.838| = 1.838

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30495, race ID 701 (538 database).