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2012 President · IL

We Ask America · fieldwork ended 2012-10-30 (7 days before the election) · 1,198 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 57% · Republican 41%

D+16.0

The certified result

Democrat 57.60% · Republican 40.73%

D+16.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 57 − 41 = 16.00
  2. Actual margin = 57.602 − 40.733 = 16.869
  3. Signed miss = 16.00 − (16.869) = -0.869
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.869| = 0.869

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30496, race ID 667 (538 database).