2012 Governor · NC
Public Policy Polling · fieldwork ended 2012-10-30 (7 days before the election) · 730 respondents · IVR · partisan sponsor (DEM)
The poll said
Democrat 39% · Republican 50%
R+11.0
The certified result
Democrat 43.23% · Republican 54.62%
R+11.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 39 − 50 = -11.00
- Actual margin = 43.229 − 54.623 = -11.394
- Signed miss = -11.00 − (-11.394) = 0.394
- Absolute miss = |0.394| = 0.394
The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.4 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30501, race ID 1263 (538 database).