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2012 President · NC

Public Policy Polling · fieldwork ended 2012-10-30 (7 days before the election) · 730 respondents · IVR · partisan sponsor (DEM)

The poll said

Democrat 49% · Republican 49%

even

The certified result

Democrat 48.35% · Republican 50.39%

R+2.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49 − 49 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.351 − 50.393 = -2.042
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (-2.042) = 2.042
  4. Absolute miss = |2.042| = 2.042

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.0 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30501, race ID 680 (538 database).