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2012 Senate · MI

EPIC-MRA · fieldwork ended 2012-10-28 (9 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 54% · Republican 33%

D+21.0

The certified result

Democrat 58.80% · Republican 37.98%

D+20.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 54 − 33 = 21.00
  2. Actual margin = 58.798 − 37.984 = 20.814
  3. Signed miss = 21.00 − (20.814) = 0.186
  4. Absolute miss = |0.186| = 0.186

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30506, race ID 1483 (538 database).