2012 President · MI
EPIC-MRA · fieldwork ended 2012-10-28 (9 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 48% · Republican 42%
D+6.0
The certified result
Democrat 54.21% · Republican 44.71%
D+9.5
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 48 − 42 = 6.00
- Actual margin = 54.208 − 44.711 = 9.497
- Signed miss = 6.00 − (9.497) = -3.497
- Absolute miss = |-3.497| = 3.497
The poll overstated the Republican by 3.5 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30506, race ID 675 (538 database).