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2012 President · CO

We Ask America · fieldwork ended 2012-10-30 (7 days before the election) · 1,246 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 50.1% · Republican 46.7%

D+3.4

The certified result

Democrat 51.49% · Republican 46.13%

D+5.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50.1 − 46.7 = 3.40
  2. Actual margin = 51.492 − 46.127 = 5.365
  3. Signed miss = 3.40 − (5.365) = -1.965
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.965| = 1.965

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30509, race ID 658 (538 database).