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2012 President · FL

We Ask America · fieldwork ended 2012-10-30 (7 days before the election) · 1,146 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 48.9% · Republican 49.8%

R+0.9

The certified result

Democrat 50.01% · Republican 49.13%

D+0.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48.9 − 49.8 = -0.90
  2. Actual margin = 50.008 − 49.131 = 0.877
  3. Signed miss = -0.90 − (0.877) = -1.777
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.777| = 1.777

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.8 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30510, race ID 662 (538 database).