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2012 Senate · WI

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2012-10-29 (8 days before the election) · 750 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 48%

even

The certified result

Democrat 51.41% · Republican 45.86%

D+5.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 48 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.409 − 45.860 = 5.549
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (5.549) = -5.549
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.549| = 5.549

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.5 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30536, race ID 1504 (538 database).