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2012 President · WI

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2012-10-29 (8 days before the election) · 750 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 49% · Republican 49%

even

The certified result

Democrat 52.78% · Republican 45.94%

D+6.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49 − 49 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 52.776 − 45.938 = 6.838
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (6.838) = -6.838
  4. Absolute miss = |-6.838| = 6.838

The poll overstated the Republican by 6.8 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30536, race ID 701 (538 database).