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2012 President · NH

Marist College · fieldwork ended 2012-10-28 (9 days before the election) · 1,013 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 49% · Republican 47%

D+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.98% · Republican 46.40%

D+5.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49 − 47 = 2.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.980 − 46.404 = 5.576
  3. Signed miss = 2.00 − (5.576) = -3.576
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.576| = 3.576

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30538, race ID 683 (538 database).