2012 President · IA
Marist College · fieldwork ended 2012-10-28 (9 days before the election) · 1,142 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 50% · Republican 44%
D+6.0
The certified result
Democrat 51.99% · Republican 46.18%
D+5.8
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 50 − 44 = 6.00
- Actual margin = 51.988 − 46.178 = 5.810
- Signed miss = 6.00 − (5.810) = 0.190
- Absolute miss = |0.190| = 0.190
The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.2 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30539, race ID 665 (538 database).