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2012 Senate · HI

MRG Research · fieldwork ended 2012-10-26 (11 days before the election) · 1,218 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 55% · Republican 40%

D+15.0

The certified result

Democrat 62.60% · Republican 37.40%

D+25.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 55 − 40 = 15.00
  2. Actual margin = 62.602 − 37.398 = 25.204
  3. Signed miss = 15.00 − (25.204) = -10.203
  4. Absolute miss = |-10.203| = 10.203

The poll overstated the Republican by 10.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30541, race ID 1478 (538 database).