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2012 Governor · WA

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2012-10-30 (7 days before the election) · 555 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 46%

D+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.54% · Republican 48.46%

D+3.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 46 = 1.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.539 − 48.461 = 3.078
  3. Signed miss = 1.00 − (3.078) = -2.079
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.079| = 2.079

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30543, race ID 1267 (538 database).