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2012 President · NV

Mellman Group · fieldwork ended 2012-10-30 (7 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (DEM)

The poll said

Democrat 50% · Republican 44%

D+6.0

The certified result

Democrat 52.36% · Republican 45.67%

D+6.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50 − 44 = 6.00
  2. Actual margin = 52.356 − 45.675 = 6.681
  3. Signed miss = 6.00 − (6.681) = -0.681
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.681| = 0.681

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30564, race ID 686 (538 database).