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2012 President · CO

Public Policy Polling · fieldwork ended 2012-10-31 (6 days before the election) · 825 respondents · IVR · partisan sponsor (DEM)

The poll said

Democrat 50% · Republican 46%

D+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.49% · Republican 46.13%

D+5.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50 − 46 = 4.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.492 − 46.127 = 5.365
  3. Signed miss = 4.00 − (5.365) = -1.365
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.365| = 1.365

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30577, race ID 658 (538 database).