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2012 President · MI

Grove Insight · fieldwork ended 2012-10-31 (6 days before the election) · 500 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (DEM)

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 41%

D+7.0

The certified result

Democrat 54.21% · Republican 44.71%

D+9.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 41 = 7.00
  2. Actual margin = 54.208 − 44.711 = 9.497
  3. Signed miss = 7.00 − (9.497) = -2.497
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.497| = 2.497

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30578, race ID 675 (538 database).