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2012 President · NE

We Ask America · fieldwork ended 2012-11-01 (5 days before the election) · 1,178 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 41% · Republican 54%

R+13.0

The certified result

Democrat 38.03% · Republican 59.80%

R+21.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 41 − 54 = -13.00
  2. Actual margin = 38.027 − 59.803 = -21.776
  3. Signed miss = -13.00 − (-21.776) = 8.776
  4. Absolute miss = |8.776| = 8.776

The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30581, race ID 682 (538 database).