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2012 President · IA

Gravis Marketing · fieldwork ended 2012-11-01 (5 days before the election) · 594 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 49% · Republican 45%

D+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.99% · Republican 46.18%

D+5.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49 − 45 = 4.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.988 − 46.178 = 5.810
  3. Signed miss = 4.00 − (5.810) = -1.810
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.810| = 1.810

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30582, race ID 665 (538 database).