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2012 House · NH-1

New England College Polling Center · fieldwork ended 2012-10-30 (7 days before the election) · 511 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 41% · Republican 48%

R+7.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.75% · Republican 45.98%

D+3.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 41 − 48 = -7.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.750 − 45.985 = 3.765
  3. Signed miss = -7.00 − (3.765) = -10.765
  4. Absolute miss = |-10.765| = 10.765

The poll overstated the Republican by 10.8 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30584, race ID 5137 (538 database).