2012 House · NH-2
New England College Polling Center · fieldwork ended 2012-10-30 (7 days before the election) · 511 respondents · IVR
The poll said
Democrat 47% · Republican 41%
D+6.0
The certified result
Democrat 50.17% · Republican 45.34%
D+4.8
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 47 − 41 = 6.00
- Actual margin = 50.171 − 45.341 = 4.830
- Signed miss = 6.00 − (4.830) = 1.169
- Absolute miss = |1.169| = 1.169
The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.2 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30584, race ID 5138 (538 database).