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2012 Senate · WI

We Ask America · fieldwork ended 2012-10-31 (6 days before the election) · 1,210 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 48.5% · Republican 46.3%

D+2.2

The certified result

Democrat 51.41% · Republican 45.86%

D+5.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48.5 − 46.3 = 2.20
  2. Actual margin = 51.409 − 45.860 = 5.549
  3. Signed miss = 2.20 − (5.549) = -3.349
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.349| = 3.349

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30592, race ID 1504 (538 database).