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2012 President · VA

We Ask America · fieldwork ended 2012-10-31 (6 days before the election) · 1,069 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 48.5% · Republican 47.6%

D+0.9

The certified result

Democrat 51.16% · Republican 47.28%

D+3.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48.5 − 47.6 = 0.90
  2. Actual margin = 51.156 − 47.283 = 3.873
  3. Signed miss = 0.90 − (3.873) = -2.973
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.973| = 2.973

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30593, race ID 698 (538 database).