2012 Senate · FL
Ipsos · fieldwork ended 2012-11-01 (5 days before the election) · 1,319 respondents · Online Panel
The poll said
Democrat 49% · Republican 35%
D+14.0
The certified result
Democrat 55.23% · Republican 42.23%
D+13.0
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 49 − 35 = 14.00
- Actual margin = 55.232 − 42.226 = 13.006
- Signed miss = 14.00 − (13.006) = 0.994
- Absolute miss = |0.994| = 0.994
The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.0 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30602, race ID 1477 (538 database).