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2012 Governor · UT

Dan Jones & Associates · fieldwork ended 2012-10-29 (8 days before the election) · 870 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 24% · Republican 69%

R+45.0

The certified result

Democrat 27.58% · Republican 68.41%

R+40.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 24 − 69 = -45.00
  2. Actual margin = 27.582 − 68.413 = -40.831
  3. Signed miss = -45.00 − (-40.831) = -4.169
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.169| = 4.169

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30618, race ID 1265 (538 database).