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2012 House · UT-2

Dan Jones & Associates · fieldwork ended 2012-10-29 (8 days before the election) · 229 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 28% · Republican 44%

R+16.0

The certified result

Democrat 33.47% · Republican 62.17%

R+28.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 28 − 44 = -16.00
  2. Actual margin = 33.465 − 62.171 = -28.706
  3. Signed miss = -16.00 − (-28.706) = 12.706
  4. Absolute miss = |12.706| = 12.706

The poll overstated the Democrat by 12.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30618, race ID 5295 (538 database).