Skip to content

2012 House · UT-4

Dan Jones & Associates · fieldwork ended 2012-10-29 (8 days before the election) · 414 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 48%

R+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.84% · Republican 48.53%

D+0.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 48 = -5.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.844 − 48.531 = 0.313
  3. Signed miss = -5.00 − (0.313) = -5.313
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.313| = 5.313

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.3 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30618, race ID 5297 (538 database).