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2012 Senate · OH

Marist College · fieldwork ended 2012-10-31 (6 days before the election) · 971 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 50% · Republican 45%

D+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 50.70% · Republican 44.70%

D+6.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50 − 45 = 5.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.701 − 44.700 = 6.001
  3. Signed miss = 5.00 − (6.001) = -1.001
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.001| = 1.001

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30627, race ID 1494 (538 database).