2012 President · FL
Marist College · fieldwork ended 2012-10-31 (6 days before the election) · 1,545 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 49% · Republican 47%
D+2.0
The certified result
Democrat 50.01% · Republican 49.13%
D+0.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 49 − 47 = 2.00
- Actual margin = 50.008 − 49.131 = 0.877
- Signed miss = 2.00 − (0.877) = 1.123
- Absolute miss = |1.123| = 1.123
The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.1 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30629, race ID 662 (538 database).