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2012 President · PA

Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. · fieldwork ended 2012-10-30 (7 days before the election) · 800 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 47%

even

The certified result

Democrat 51.97% · Republican 46.59%

D+5.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 47 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.972 − 46.587 = 5.385
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (5.385) = -5.385
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.385| = 5.385

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.4 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30631, race ID 691 (538 database).